Storyline - Population Growth
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Background

Urban planning areas Population is assumed to grow at the same rate for all scenarios presented here. A 2.8 percent annual growth rate was assumed, based on historic growth rates over the last two decades. We note, however, that ther has been wide year to year fluctuations in these rates; however, we do not consider fluctuations in growth rate in these results.

The first set of charts below report results for the developed areas in the basin, depicted in the map to the right. The left hand chart shows percent of development that occurs insides an Urban Growth Area for each of the scenarios. In the more managed scenarios, most new population growth occurs in the existing Urban Growth Areas due to restrictions on new development outside of these areas. In the less managed scenarios, these rules are relaxed and as a consequence more development occurs in rural lands.

The right hand chart shows the portion of new growth that occurs in the Wood River Valley. Under the more managed scenarios, the bulk of new growth is in this area, while under the less managed scenarios, most new growth occurs in the rural areas.


Portion of New Growth Added WITHIN Urban Growth Areas Portion of New Growth Added in WRV Urban Growth Area

The capacity to accomodate new growth is presented next. The capacity is calculated by comparing the existing population density at any point in time, and comparing that to the density allowed by the existing zoning, if any. The left hand map show existing zoning ca. 2010. The rules governing changes in zoning varied by scenario, with the more managed scenarios generally providing more restrictive zoning and increased allowed densities, while the less managed scenarios generally relaxing zoning constraints.

Major Zoning Classes Capacity to Accomodate New Growth within Zoning Constraints
Zoning Map Note: click on map for full version depicting all zones used in this study.

Ketchum Area Detail

The following maps show population in the Ketchum area. The top map show population density in 2010, while the next series show projected population densities in 2070 under our four management scenarios.

Population Density, Ketchum area, ca.2010
Ketchum Population Density, ca2010

Population Density, Ketchum area, Ag Boom/Less Managed, ca. 2070Population Density, Ketchum area, Ag Boom/More Managed, ca. 2070
Ketchum Population Density, ABLM, ca2070 Ketchum Population Density, ABMM, ca2070

Population Density, Ketchum area, Tourist Boom/Less Managed, ca. 2070.Population Density, Ketchum area, Tourist Boom/More Managed, ca. 2070.
Ketchum Population Density, TBLM, ca2070 Ketchum Population Density, TBMM, ca2070

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